Overview

The U.S. administration recently enacted a new round of tariffs—effective immediately. The smart device space—smart locks, thermostats, security cameras, Wi-Fi routers, and more—will be hit especially hard as most devices are made outside the United States. Nearly every manufacturer is affected, forcing difficult decisions around device pricing, and with important ramifications for device demand.

In this report, we provide a detailed analysis of how the new tariffs affect leading manufacturers across each major smart device category. Our impact assessment considers each manufacturer’s country of assembly and the corresponding U.S. import tariff rate. You’ll also find an extended commentary at the end of the report discussing how manufacturers are likely to respond—and what these changes could mean for overall device demand.

Research Methodology: To compile this data, our team leveraged Seam’s DeviceDB—a comprehensive catalog of thousands of devices across hundreds of brands. We also reviewed U.S. Customs import records, product manuals, and reached out directly to select manufacturers to verify country-of-assembly information.

Impact Analysis by Device Category

This section lists key device categories, along with tables summarizing where popular brands assemble their devices and the expected U.S. tariff rates that they face under newly-announced policies.

Smart Locks

Among smart lock manufacturers, Yale appears to be the most impacted, as its devices for the U.S. market are primarily assembled in Vietnam. In contrast, Schlage and Kwikset may be better positioned—at least in the short term—if the U.S. and Mexico can reach a swift agreement to ease new tariffs. Lastly, the recent escalation in trade tensions with China signals a potentially prolonged and challenging road ahead for manufacturers that continue to rely on Chinese assembly.

Thermostats

Nearly all of the thermostat models we analyzed are manufactured in China, with the notable exception of Ecobee, which assembles its devices in Taiwan. While details remain limited, it appears likely that the U.S. and Taiwan will move quickly toward a trade agreement—potentially giving Ecobee a competitive edge in the near term.

Video Doorbells & Cameras

As with other categories, video doorbells and security cameras are predominantly manufactured in China, leaving many brands particularly vulnerable to the new tariffs.

Notably, this category stands out due to the potential for recurring revenue from video subscription services. As a result, manufacturers may be more inclined to absorb tariff-related costs in the near term in order to protect and preserve these higher-margin, long-term revenue streams.

Wi-Fi Routers

This category is perhaps the most geographically diversified in terms of country of origin. One possible reason is the push to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing for security-sensitive enterprise hardware, which has, in turn, influenced where consumer hardware is produced. Taiwan has historically been strong in this space, and a swift trade agreement between the U.S. and Taiwan could give Taiwan-based manufacturers a meaningful advantage.

Commentary

Manufacturer Impact

We expect smart home manufacturers to respond in one of two ways: either absorb the cost or pass it to device buyers.

• Absorb the cost: Manufacturers that compete primarily on price and distribute primarily through Amazon will probably choose to absorb the additional tariff costs. Oftentimes, these manufacturers are based out of China, and their proximity to the supply chain may enable them to adjust bills of materials (BOMs) quickly to improve hardware margins.
• Pass on the cost: Premium brands often headquartered in the United States have less flexibility to adjust BOMs due to longer product development cycles and shareholder pressures. As such, they will probably opt to pass costs on to consumers and rely on brand recognition to retain market share.

Note that the U.S. administration has already signaled openness to country-by-country deals. Thus, some manufacturers may fare significantly better than others if their manufacturing operations are located in a country that successfully reaches a deal with the United States.

For example, manufacturers assembling devices in Mexico (such as Kwikset or Schlage) could benefit if the government of Claudia Sheinbaum reaches favorable trade terms with the U.S. administration. Reports also indicate that Vietnamese leader Tô Lâm is similarly negotiating with the U.S. government, which would help Yale who currently assembles a number of devices in Vietnam.

Device Demand Impact

The exact impact on the demand side is hard to determine at the moment. While consumers are sensitive to price increases, demand from businesses (prosumers, small- and medium-sized businesses, and enterprise) may be less affected.

1. Consumer demand: Consumer electronics often cluster around psychological price thresholds—for example, $49, $79, $99, $119, $149, $199, $249, and so on. Manufacturers may attempt to absorb tariff impacts just enough to remain under these thresholds. However, many devices are already pegged at a common price anchor (for example, $99.99). Any tariff-driven cost increase could push it into a higher tier, potentially depressing demand.
2. Prosumer / Enterprise channels: For customers like Airbnb hosts or multi-family operators, initial CAPEX is a smaller fraction of overall operations. Purchase decisions are based on function, software compatibility with third-party apps (for example, property management software), and long-term ROI, rather than pure up-front cost. However, professional installers and resellers distributing in these verticals may be pressured by manufacturers to absorb some of the tariff-induced increases to maintain relationships and competitive bids.

In both cases, a strong U.S. economy—as signaled by the most recent reports—could help offset the drop in demand caused by price increases.

Conclusion

Manufacturers that continue to rely heavily on China for production appear the most exposed to tariffs near or above 34%. Some who have moved to Vietnam may face even higher rates—46%—unless ongoing negotiations yield exemptions.

1. Consumer demand may soften slightly as prices increase, but the broader trend toward smart home adoption likely remains robust.
2. In sectors like rental properties, property management, and hospitality, demand might stay comparatively strong, with professional installers and resellers absorbing some of the cost to maintain volume.

Overall, new tariffs will cause pricing pressure and supply chain shifts, but these changes won’t fundamentally derail the upward momentum of smart home technology in the U.S. market. We’ll continue to monitor negotiations and update this blog with the latest details.